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Bahrain, UAE, Israel, Multiple Step Steps in the Middle East Might Be Inducing Subtle Signs That Ramifications Beyond Peace and Economic Changes Could Emerge, Including Volatility

Posted by HCN on Wednesday, November 25, 2020
There was a recent meeting between leaders of Jordan, Bahrain, and UAE.
See https://www.arabnews.com/node/1764956/middle-east, 'Jordan, Bahrain and UAE discuss peace for Palestinians in Abu Dhabi summit'.
Let us look at a timeline, among many.
There have been numerous peace initiatives, and agreements and bans in the last few months, too many to name here.

Listing some of them:
  • 'Normalization' of relations between the UAE and Israel might head the list, as other developments are in sequence to it
  • September 2020's Abraham Peace Accords
  • October 2020's exemption on visa travel restrictions, i.e. between Israel and UAE; airline travel
  • UAE visa worker ban on a set of countries, [reportedly Iran, Syria, Turkey, Algeria, Somalia..Yemen, Afghanistan, among them, countries known for large populations of Muslim] citing 'security concerns'
  • A big arms sale in the works involving the UAE, and new dynamics of how arms sales could evolve in the region
The 'New Middle East', concept, reference mid August 2020 airplane travel between UAE and Israel, might not make any sense to some in the Middle East, as silver and gold are two separate chemicals, regardless of the effort to change one to another.
Religious scholars are not favoring everything that is involved, especially in terms of trade of certain consumable products, in some of the deals comprising these newly emerging agreements.
There was a recent meeting between leaders of Jordan, Bahrain, and UAE.
The Arab World, the Islam World, the Bani Israel World, and many more, all concurrently living in the region off the Middle East, have numerous different agendas.

Challenges due to the pandemic of coronavirus and illnesses like COVID-19, have plausibly made it a more trying process for leaders, followers, advisors, analysts, maybe even religious scholars, to pick through all of the fine lines, and form up carefully constructed initiatives which could be unanimously guaranteed as sitting solidly in full favor with everyone else, especially when the entire circumstances of the pandemic results in moment to moment changes.

Still though, are deeply rooted beliefs as to what the Arab World, what directions it goes, and what is tolerated and what is not. There are no guarantees that all of the thousand or so pages of what goes into every decision, in the way of ameliorating tensions, will be at the forefront of everyone's decision all the time.

In the late 1940s, it appeared that Israel would settle in with certain plans into the Middle East region in a smooth unhindered unfolding, but what instead emerged were sudden tensions that included armed conflict.

From a historical analysis perspective, it seems that there are a number of developments packed in to the agreements of certain nations in the Arab World, which might be too many too fast, for one, everyone in the region to fully ascertain what is going on, and second, determine whether they are comfortable.

This could be indicative of what is meant by possible volatility. 

Multiple step steps, that is purposely put, not a grammatical miswording, to attempt to illustrate, that there are steps in the agreements that are concurrent, and viewed altogether as a step.

In the backdrop, are other shifts in socio-economic and sociopolitical spheres, that although rigid rules shaped by boundaries from a half century ago might still be used to form suspense in Middle East affairs today, some of what is in those boundaries have changed. For example, today, there are soldiers who profess Muslim and serving in the Israeli military, while in the onset of official founding of Israel 70 years ago, such scenario might be considered by many newspaper readers in regions of the world outside of the Middle East as a non-existent possibility. The big question going around online newspapers in the Arab World right about now, is, in regard the 'normalization' of UAE, Bahrain, relations with Israel, 'what's in it for Palestine?'. That question holds water, on a verbatim level the same as years ago, but it might not have all the same ingredients in the shish-kabob, a favorite food in the region. -Psychological elements in sociopolitical dynamics for sophisticated words for analysts.

And yes, 'normalization' in the framework of relations to Israel, could allude to the obverse or contrast of it, which are abnormal relations. Abnormal relations are supposedly religious based tensions where this land is ours and only ours, where normal relations, for example going skiing on the mountain slopes of Switzerland from a neighboring country, or an American visiting the Niagara Falls in Canada, ordinarily does not take much more than showing a piece of identification, if that, to visit. The normalization spoken of between UAE, Bahrain, and Israel, seem to have the aim of putting the religious based barriers in a back-seat. A philosophical disagreement, a belief caveat, is, the 'normal', is what the status was of not allowing either party in, (to lands or sites), because these rules had been in place for so many years, so the abnormal, is allowing the free no restrictions travel; it is something that families that have been living in the desert preaching certain religious separations to one generation that follows after another, and tolerances which are not always practiced either, are looking at as the prospect of something new to get used to.

U.S. Involvement. A change in White House Administration might not have a two-fold possibility, nor simple dichotomy, of either the more things change, the more they stay the same, or every step Trump took will receive a night and day turn-around by Biden. Looking at two articles, the titles alone could tell a tale of little portions of each are sometimes shared, sometimes disenfranchised, but rarely completely shunned.

Issued on: 07/11/2020 - 22:24

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-praises-israel-uae-peace-deal-trump
Published August 13
Biden praises Israel-UAE peace deal announced by Trump, credits Obama administration
Biden said his administration would 'seek to build on this progress'

In the flurry of an overwhelming amount of information that comes through online news stories these days, there are gleanings of Trump in the last few weeks of this 4 year sit, continuing to be at the table, in involvement with what is being called Middle East peace efforts; which leaves questions, such as, where is what he is doing all going, when it appears Biden will be in office and there is a high likelihood to have positions on matters in the region slightly different than Trump?

What is everything in the pie that is being oven cooked, that if not cooked right -especially if unforeseeable developments reflecting certain Arab traditions comes to the forefront- could concave in?

Elders of experience might say, even if it is cooked right, it could still cave in.



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Update January 21, 2024
Key words/terms in the crisis today:
KIA
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Update August 1, 2022
According to https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-extends-state-of-emergency.html, Hliang set before the body a proposal of allowing him to serve 6 more months, whereat word has arrived in the press that a 'State of Emergency' has been extended 6 more months. HCN comment, it may be clear that a 'State of Emergency' in their meaning might not be exactly the same as it is in the US. Perhaps English descriptive term State of Emergency in the context of the Burma/Myanmar crisis is a translation of something.

Update April 21, 2022
Reports of riot at detention center in what appears to be Kedah State, Malaysia with past several days; 6 fatalities in aftermath; those fleeing Myanmar, over 300 're-arrests'. Ramifications of power overturn is how wide?

Update August 4, 2021: US State Dept slated to talk with NUG
Update June 19, 2021: Looks like Rohingya taking the brunt, no matter which way the developments go- story here https://www.hcrestnews.com/intercontinental-news/denialed-undeniable-rohingya-have-been-facing-brunt-of-oppression-no-matter-what-the-turn-of-events. Village burned to the ground, Kin Ma, June 17th, 2021, elderly dead in the process- elderly victims, plus corpses coming back without organs, equals what, not a tone that says perpetrators deep, perhaps just simply evil. May 26, 2021: An American journalist is detained; officials have died in custody. Pictures of armed soldiers in camouflage have been released, wearing white face masks (presumably due to COVID-19).. not to be disrespectful in asking, but why undermine the entire camouflage with white mask?, is a question that presents, when assessing the situation
Update May 10, 2021: Thermal/pyro methodologies of opposition suppression being used extensively. See PDF translated page of BBC article citing those activities at Attacks in Burma-Myanmar (italic click link) [copyright waiver request- time of essence]. Satellite usage is being suppressed in the region as well, so there is a strong chance that not every event is being recorded and broadcast for the world to quickly access and view through media.
Update Sunday May 9, 2021: NUG poised to set up a people's defense force; 8 protestors reported killed when fired on by security forces on Sunday May 2, 2021 thereabout, in Kyaukme, Shan State. Those events post April ASEAN meeting [..arriving classic off the airplane on red carpet, clasped hands, modern day dress suit considered Western; 3 finger wave, about as ancient... Debate on who is welcoming who.]
Static pro tem statement: There is an emergency situation in Myanmar... content deleted 4/15..Details still becoming clear.. still no signs that the current situation is not at genocide level (Original headline Saturday April 10, 2021)
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