Written and first version published evening of December 23, 2020

Questions naturally arise, when multiple incidents that evoke suspicion arise. This brief piece of writing is intended to be a start at putting a finger and a wrap around an evasive subject that has numerous shifting pieces.

This past week, stories were posted about Chinese and Russian jets over South Korea air space and East China Sea. Confer https://hcn-cache.blogspot.com/2020/12/high-amount-of-activity-of-south-korea.html.

The article at the link here, has main characters with very little easily found background information about, however, is said to have been one of Yeltsin's main advisors. Essentially, the article is looking down on the dissolution of the Soviet Union. http://sputniknews.cn/politics/202012091032678555/
(The article may have to be translated into English.)

It turns out there are a number of other articles concurrently headed in the same direction.

The article and the jet event are less than 2 weeks apart it appears.

Just a while back, there was unanimous praise by about every nation of heading toward democracy. Reference the lauding of the efforts of Gorbachev back in the early 1990s.

What is going on?
What is in the works?

Of course among the aspects of what makes Russia, China, set out large in contrast to other nations are potential nuclear and large weapons capacity, or capability. And so too the U.S. Meanwhile eyes have been kept on North Korea about the weapons capacity matter. One of the latest subjects gaining headline press is the thermobaric type; who's producing them, trading them, got them?

Discussions start getting dirty, when dirt is dug up about everyone involved in global drug trafficking, and hate to say it, the list of regions where drug trafficking is going on is pretty long.

Historical backdrop includes nuclear test sites and the distances from at least two of them about 800 or so miles, reference Taklamakan, Lop Nur etc., in the 60s, and current region of Kazakhstan about 15 years prior, by the Soviet Union.

KSSR, as it was then, affected by dissolution of USSR.

Elsewhere, but not too remote from the conversation, insofar physical distance, and literally:

• Afghanistan had a recent tragic event; a source that populates towards the top, and mentions democracy, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/yusof-rashid-assassination-afghanistan/2020/12/23/df92f860-44e4-11eb-ac2a-3ac0f2b8ceeb_story.html
• The Xinjiang Province, which is around the Lop Nur area, still contends with its challenges
• Within the agenda of other nations, per news sources, is to assess the new President elect of the U.S., and configure how to plan with respect to him

There was a recent meeting between leaders of Jordan, Bahrain, and UAE.
See https://www.arabnews.com/node/1764956/middle-east, 'Jordan, Bahrain and UAE discuss peace for Palestinians in Abu Dhabi summit'.
Let us look at a timeline, among many.
There have been numerous peace initiatives, and agreements and bans in the last few months, too many to name here.

Listing some of them:

• 'Normalization' of relations between the UAE and Israel might head the list, as other developments are in sequence to it
• September 2020's Abraham Peace Accords
• October 2020's exemption on visa travel restrictions, i.e. between Israel and UAE; airline travel
• UAE visa worker ban on a set of countries, [reportedly Iran, Syria, Turkey, Algeria, Somalia..Yemen, Afghanistan, among them, countries known for large populations of Muslim] citing 'security concerns'
• A big arms sale in the works involving the UAE, and new dynamics of how arms sales could evolve in the region

The 'New Middle East', concept, reference mid August 2020 airplane travel between UAE and Israel, might not make any sense to some in the Middle East, as silver and gold are two separate chemicals, regardless of the effort to change one to another.
Religious scholars are not favoring everything that is involved, especially in terms of trade of certain consumable products, in some of the deals comprising these newly emerging agreements.
There was a recent meeting between leaders of Jordan, Bahrain, and UAE.
The Arab World, the Islam World, the Bani Israel World, and many more, all concurrently living in the region off the Middle East, have numerous different agendas.

Challenges due to the pandemic of coronavirus and illnesses like COVID-19, have plausibly made it a more trying process for leaders, followers, advisors, analysts, maybe even religious scholars, to pick through all of the fine lines, and form up carefully constructed initiatives which could be unanimously guaranteed as sitting solidly in full favor with everyone else, especially when the entire circumstances of the pandemic results in moment to moment changes.

Still though, are deeply rooted beliefs as to what the Arab World, what directions it goes, and what is tolerated and what is not. There are no guarantees that all of the thousand or so pages of what goes into every decision, in the way of ameliorating tensions, will be at the forefront of everyone's decision all the time.

In the late 1940s, it appeared that Israel would settle in with certain plans into the Middle East region in a smooth unhindered unfolding, but what instead emerged were sudden tensions that included armed conflict.

From a historical analysis perspective, it seems that there are a number of developments packed in to the agreements of certain nations in the Arab World, which might be too many too fast, for one, everyone in the region to fully ascertain what is going on, and second, determine whether they are comfortable.

This could be indicative of what is meant by possible volatility. 

Multiple step steps, that is purposely put, not a grammatical miswording, to attempt to illustrate, that there are steps in the agreements that are concurrent, and viewed altogether as a step.

In the backdrop, are other shifts in socio-economic and sociopolitical spheres, that although rigid rules shaped by boundaries from a half century ago might still be used to form suspense in Middle East affairs today, some of what is in those boundaries have changed. For example, today, there are soldiers who profess Muslim and serving in the Israeli military, while in the onset of official founding of Israel 70 years ago, such scenario might be considered by many newspaper readers in regions of the world outside of the Middle East as a non-existent possibility. The big question going around online newspapers in the Arab World right about now, is, in regard the 'normalization' of UAE, Bahrain, relations with Israel, 'what's in it for Palestine?'. That question holds water, on a verbatim level the same as years ago, but it might not have all the same ingredients in the shish-kabob, a favorite food in the region. -Psychological elements in sociopolitical dynamics for sophisticated words for analysts.

And yes, 'normalization' in the framework of relations to Israel, could allude to the obverse or contrast of it, which are abnormal relations. Abnormal relations are supposedly religious based tensions where this land is ours and only ours, where normal relations, for example going skiing on the mountain slopes of Switzerland from a neighboring country, or an American visiting the Niagara Falls in Canada, ordinarily does not take much more than showing a piece of identification, if that, to visit. The normalization spoken of between UAE, Bahrain, and Israel, seem to have the aim of putting the religious based barriers in a back-seat. A philosophical disagreement, a belief caveat, is, the 'normal', is what the status was of not allowing either party in, (to lands or sites), because these rules had been in place for so many years, so the abnormal, is allowing the free no restrictions travel; it is something that families that have been living in the desert preaching certain religious separations to one generation that follows after another, and tolerances which are not always practiced either, are looking at as the prospect of something new to get used to.

U.S. Involvement. A change in White House Administration might not have a two-fold possibility, nor simple dichotomy, of either the more things change, the more they stay the same, or every step Trump took will receive a night and day turn-around by Biden. Looking at two articles, the titles alone could tell a tale of little portions of each are sometimes shared, sometimes disenfranchised, but rarely completely shunned.


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-praises-israel-uae-peace-deal-trump

In the flurry of an overwhelming amount of information that comes through online news stories these days, there are gleanings of Trump in the last few weeks of this 4 year sit, continuing to be at the table, in involvement with what is being called Middle East peace efforts; which leaves questions, such as, where is what he is doing all going, when it appears Biden will be in office and there is a high likelihood to have positions on matters in the region slightly different than Trump?

What is everything in the pie that is being oven cooked, that if not cooked right -especially if unforeseeable developments reflecting certain Arab traditions comes to the forefront- could concave in?

Elders of experience might say, even if it is cooked right, it could still cave in.

Nagorno-Karabakh issues, saliently marked by tensions recently, run deep and back many years. Which side, especially in regard Armenia or Azerbaijan, is 'right', and which one 'wrong', is not a simple clear-cut situation. From day to day, events that unfold each have their ethical aspects studied to different degrees.
The Azerbaijani lean, for short words, was expressed recently, mid-November 2020, at least in Oslo, Norway, according to a few sources.

Evening of October 30th 2020 EST, this is a work in progress as fragments of information come in.
As it appears now, commodities have taken precedence as priority in a number of aspects.
Over the past 1400 years, a certain level of dignity has been generally expected as maintained by whom comprises the Arab peninsula as to what will and will not occur, on the peninsula. There have been tensions, historical caliphate (khulifa..), L Balfour Agreement, Ottoman Empire, Iran Iraq War, War in Iraq, and so forth; however, there have been recent developments over the past several months that have almost if not entirely changed the core what, it is that interacts with each other, so much so that there are concerns that tumult could literally equivocate to an earthquake either as a natural erosion, disintegration or discomfort.

Possible detail facts soon