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Pandora's Box 2: Belarus and Lukashenko, Russia and Putin, Joint Troops Proposal, Ukraine in Consideration

Posted by HCN on Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Published 10 (Oct)/11/2022 late evening EST
It is as if what might be a rapidly snowballing escalation in developments almost replays what Russia underwent upon orders to invade Ukraine. From what the media tells most of the public, not everybody in Russia liked the order, which many fingers point to Putin as responsible for it.

Belarus may be undergoing almost a duplicate, while also perhaps a proxy, a junior, a potentially and augment to the mission of Russia invading Ukraine with the rationale for it.

Lukashenko has evidently announced within the past few days a joint troops with Russia to come into being. Is it all directly applied to aggression on Ukraine? Ukraine, NATO the forefront of stated concerns, the forefront, only the concerns.. and theory in that vein contemplations, in the news now.

Certain simplistic battle line scenarios and questions like that await to be answered. Of course Belarus is its own country, so its own unique facets and dimensions. There may even be bits of irony in that relations between Belarus and Russia may have some give and take that may have involved some lack of perfectly smooth interweaving amidst proposals for certain kinds of unions between the two.

Not to be a fortune teller, but it is probable that not everyone in Belarus is going to be 100% comfortable with going forward with a joint troops activity especially that would involve Belarus soldiers on the ground in Ukraine carrying out military fighting. For the sake of peace, maybe that far-fetched imagery will not materialize in the form of WWI WWII style activity; some suspense may be here.

Salient contrast: US President is or recently was on the referent 'cannot visit Russia list', whereat, Lukashenko visited Putin last week.

Thus far, perhaps up to a certain threshold in the developments right through here, the US and Belarus have basically had positive relations; where on the scale of tenuous to full, not gone into here. A relation jeopardized now?, a very steep investigation into the reasoning of Lukashenko to make his joint troops proposition is likely bound.

Geographically, Ukraine borders with Belarus, and Russia. North, east, southeast, if you wish to see it in that manner. Land, the remaining angles with exception to the waters south. Ukraine borders with other nations besides these as well. 

Belarus continuance to thrive and function, such as economically, how will that be in terms of methodology?

Belarus set in a position, such as the innate geographic positioning, to have some impact on the current Russia Ukraine tensions, has been going on longer than just the past couple of days. However, with joint troops possibility becoming more a stark reality as it could affect the dynamics of conflict in the region, eyebrows may be getting raised not just once, but twice; how does the US react to when a nation with good relations is on the side of a development turned against, moreover, what is it really, that is going on in the region?, perhaps something underneath it all not clear yet, maybe a danger exists or a presence exists in the Ukraine-Russia-Belarus region that is more serious that fully understood by popular media as we speak but could become exposed.



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Burma/Myanmar Crisis Corner

Update January 21, 2024
Key words/terms in the crisis today:
KIA
Kachin Independence Army
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army
junta
CDF-Mara chapter
National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG)
Chinland Council
Arakan Army
Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army
United League of Arakan (ULA)
Palaung State Liberation Front (PSLF)
Tatmadaw
Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
Three Brotherhood Alliance
Frequent jailing of journalists
MaBaTha
anti-Muslim 969


Update August 1, 2022
According to https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-extends-state-of-emergency.html, Hliang set before the body a proposal of allowing him to serve 6 more months, whereat word has arrived in the press that a 'State of Emergency' has been extended 6 more months. HCN comment, it may be clear that a 'State of Emergency' in their meaning might not be exactly the same as it is in the US. Perhaps English descriptive term State of Emergency in the context of the Burma/Myanmar crisis is a translation of something.

Update April 21, 2022
Reports of riot at detention center in what appears to be Kedah State, Malaysia with past several days; 6 fatalities in aftermath; those fleeing Myanmar, over 300 're-arrests'. Ramifications of power overturn is how wide?

Update August 4, 2021: US State Dept slated to talk with NUG
Update June 19, 2021: Looks like Rohingya taking the brunt, no matter which way the developments go- story here https://www.hcrestnews.com/intercontinental-news/denialed-undeniable-rohingya-have-been-facing-brunt-of-oppression-no-matter-what-the-turn-of-events. Village burned to the ground, Kin Ma, June 17th, 2021, elderly dead in the process- elderly victims, plus corpses coming back without organs, equals what, not a tone that says perpetrators deep, perhaps just simply evil. May 26, 2021: An American journalist is detained; officials have died in custody. Pictures of armed soldiers in camouflage have been released, wearing white face masks (presumably due to COVID-19).. not to be disrespectful in asking, but why undermine the entire camouflage with white mask?, is a question that presents, when assessing the situation
Update May 10, 2021: Thermal/pyro methodologies of opposition suppression being used extensively. See PDF translated page of BBC article citing those activities at Attacks in Burma-Myanmar (italic click link) [copyright waiver request- time of essence]. Satellite usage is being suppressed in the region as well, so there is a strong chance that not every event is being recorded and broadcast for the world to quickly access and view through media.
Update Sunday May 9, 2021: NUG poised to set up a people's defense force; 8 protestors reported killed when fired on by security forces on Sunday May 2, 2021 thereabout, in Kyaukme, Shan State. Those events post April ASEAN meeting [..arriving classic off the airplane on red carpet, clasped hands, modern day dress suit considered Western; 3 finger wave, about as ancient... Debate on who is welcoming who.]
Static pro tem statement: There is an emergency situation in Myanmar... content deleted 4/15..Details still becoming clear.. still no signs that the current situation is not at genocide level (Original headline Saturday April 10, 2021)
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